A new report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
forecasts 100 percent of new power in Australia will be generated from
renewable energy sources through 2020.
The AEMO’s National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP)
The AEMO’s National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP) 2013,
predicts the majority of new electric generation will be based on wind
power (84 percent), followed by solar (13 percent) and
finally biomass (3 percent). This includes 168 MW of new wind generation
that has recently come online in Tasmania, and a further 131 MW in
Victoria, 270 MW in South Australia, and 386 MW in New South Wales
committed to come online from 2014–15. AEMO said it is aware of close to
15,800 MW of proposed wind generation projects.
The NTNDP estimates approximately 8,700 MW of new wind generation to
connect to the transmission network by 2020, resulting in a total
installed National Electricity Market wind generation capacity of around
11,000 MW.
New renewable generation that comes online displaces existing
baseload generation and adds to the current oversupply of generation
capacity in the NEM signaling potential generation reductions. 2013
NTNDP modeling estimates a reduction of 3,700 MW in coal-fired
generation capacity to 2020. (While the modeling removed generation
plant predominately in a single year, actual withdrawals would be
expected to occur progressively.) This is approximately 14 percent of
the total current installed coal-fired generation capacity. Zero carbon
price modeling results in reductions of around 3,100 MW, or 12 percent
of coal-fired generation capacity. Even with these projected reductions, the AEMO report found coal will
remain the dominant generation fuel over the outlook period.
The 2013 NTNDP outlook is dependent on government policy decisions
regarding renewable energy and carbon emissions reductions. NTNDP
modeling indicates that the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET)
is the main driver of generation investment, with the carbon price
having a lesser impact.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/12/renewables-to-account-for-all-new-power-in-australia-through-2020-says-aemo
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