In this, my last post until September, I take a quick look at the
IEA’s latest renewables projections. The IEA has just produced its
World Energy Outlook Special Report
on Energy and Climate Change, which is intended to describe how the
energy sector can transition to being part of a lower carbon world. It
includes a new Bridge Scenario which emphasises what can be done over
the next decade or two. There is much that is good in the report,
including its mention of the potential to reduce methane emissions from
the energy sector, a subject which I’ll return to in a future post.
However its renewables projections are less satisfactory. I previously noted how the IEA has vastly underestimated renewables growth in the past (see here),
and that their current projections show future rates of deployment of
renewables slowing substantially from present levels (see here).
I had hoped that, especially given its topic, this latest report would
include a more realistic outlook for renewables. However even the
Bridge Scenario projections continue to look much too pessimistic.
The
table below shows a comparison of the IEA’s wind and solar PV
projections for the 2020s with actual installations for last year and
expected rates for this year. It shows that the IEA projects
installation rates for the 2020s at about last year’s level and below
levels expected for this year, implying a stagnation or contraction of
the industry rather than continued growth, even as measures to reduce
emissions are increased.
Annual average installation rates for wind and solar PV (GW)
| 2020s IEA Bridge scenarios (annual average) | 2014(Actual) | 2015 (estimated by Bloomberg) | |
| Wind | 55 | 51 | 63 |
| Solar PV | 42 | 43 | 58 |
Notes:
Historic data is taken from Bloomberg, BP, and the Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC). Data for wind installation in 2014 is similar at 49 GW,
52GW, and 51 GW respectively according to each source. Different data
sources give somewhat different values for the amount of solar PV
installation in 2015. BP shows solar PV at around 40GW, Bloomberg
around 45GW. I have taken the mid-point of these two values. There are
various possible explanations for the difference, for example different
estimates of which projects were completed by the end of the year.
Previous years’ estimates for the amount of solar PV installed are very
similar between the two sources (within a GW or so).
The
chart below (an update from my previous post) shows this data
graphically, and compares it with history and the IEA’s 2014 World
Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario. It shows welcome but limited
increases in the rate of installation of both wind and solar PV
projected by the IEA. There is still a clear trend break between
history and the projections.
The
IEA seems to continue to be concerned about the costs of renewables,
leading them to be very cautious in their projections. But with costs
falling, pressure for action to reduce emissions increasing, and
penetration of both wind and solar PV globally remaining well below
saturation levels, continued growth in the rate of deployment seems much
more likely than stagnation or decline.
The IEA’s work is widely
respected and quoted. This makes it all the more important that their
renewables scenarios become more realistic. Currently they serve mainly
to distort the public debate on pathways to decarbonisation, and
detract from the other good work in this area that the IEA does. The
time for the IEA to improve its projections for renewables seems long
overdue.
http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/2243852/iea-s-bridge-scenario-low-carbon-world-again-underestimates-role-renew