Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (interactive table viewer)
In its recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2015
(AEO2015), EIA expects the United States to be a net natural gas
exporter by 2017. After 2017, natural gas trade is driven largely by the
availability of natural gas resources and by world energy prices.
Increased availability of domestic gas or higher world energy prices
each increase the gap between the cost of U.S. natural gas and world
prices that encourages exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and, to a
lesser extent, greater exports by pipeline to Mexico.
The AEO2015
examines alternate cases with higher and lower world oil price
assumptions, which serve as a proxy for broader world energy prices
given oil-indexed contracts, as well as with higher assumed U.S. oil and
natural gas resources. These assumptions significantly affect projected
growth in annual net LNG exports after 2017. Net LNG exports make up
most of the natural gas exports in most cases. By 2040, LNG exports
range from 0.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to
10.3 Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case. For comparison, 2040
natural gas net exports by pipeline range from 1.1 Tcf in the High Oil
Price case to 2.9 Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.
Most
of the growth in U.S. net natural gas exports occurs before 2030, as
increased domestic natural gas supply satisfies new demand both
internationally (with the development of LNG export capacity and growing
demand for pipeline exports) and domestically (particularly in the
industrial and electric power sectors). Increased shale gas production
accounts for three-quarters of the increase in total dry gas production.
More than half of the increase in shale gas production comes from the
Haynesville and Marcellus formations.
Natural gas net exports are
highest in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, which assumes both higher
resources and improvements in technology to bring those resources to
market. In this case, both net LNG and net pipeline exports in 2040 are
higher than in any other AEO2015 case, because higher production
capability lowers the cost of U.S. natural gas compared with prices in
the world market.
In the High Oil Price and Low Oil Price cases,
projected LNG exports vary in response to the price of oil-linked
international LNG contracts. Contract prices are higher in the High Oil
Price case, making U.S. LNG exports more competitive, while the opposite
occurs in the Low Oil Price case. However, the relationship between
international LNG prices and world oil prices is assumed to weaken later
in the projection period, with the most decoupling of oil and natural
gas prices occurring in the High Oil Price case.
U.S. pipeline
exports of natural gas—most flowing south to Mexico—increase in all of
the AEO2015 cases because increases in Mexico's production are not
expected to keep pace with its growing natural gas demand. On the import
side, pipeline imports from Canada, which accounted for 97% of total
U.S. gross total imports of natural gas in 2013, continue as the source
of nearly all U.S. gross natural gas imports through 2040, except in the
Low Oil Price case, where gross imports of relatively less expensive
international LNG contributes 22% of total imports in 2040.
Source: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (interactive table viewer)
http://theenergycollective.com/todayinenergy/2222316/projections-show-us-becoming-net-exporter-natural-gas
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