By Jeff Siegel
The car world is obsessed with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)...
And for good reason.
After all, in the world of vehicle design and alternative fuels,
no one has taken this disruptive technology further than Elon Musk
and Tesla Motors. The days of glorified golf carts are long gone. And although few
can actually afford an $80,000 Model S, Tesla isn’t the only game
in town. In fact, Nissan (OTCBB: NSANY), which makes the all-electric
LEAF, recently announced that after four years, its alliance with
Renault has officially sold 250,000 electric cars.
That may not sound like much, especially when you compare that to
the Ford Fusion, which sold about the same number of cars in
a single year in 2014. But in the scheme of things, this is a very
big deal. After all, five years ago, only 17,000 electric cars were sold in
the U.S. Nissan’s cut came in at 9,674 units.
Today, the Nissan-Renault alliance has sold a quarter of a
million electric cars worldwide. To put that in perspective, the very first hybrid vehicle to hit
the market was the Honda Insight. To date, it hasn’t even broken
100,000 units. Of course, the real superstar in the world of conventional
hybrids is the Toyota Prius.
Folks, it took six years for Toyota to sell 228,000 units of the
Prius. If you combine Honda Insight sales and Toyota Prius sales, it
took both manufacturers six years to sell what the Nissan-Renault
has sold in electric cars in just four years. So when we speak about growth, this is what we’re talking about. In the passenger vehicle space, you will find no greater growth
story than the electric car. And that, dear reader, is why smart
investors have a keen interest in the electric car trend.
The Front-Runners
In the world of conventional hybrids, it didn’t take long for
Toyota to lead the pack with the Prius. Bottom line: The Prius has always delivered better fuel economy
and a better all-around ride than its competitors. Priced
competitively, it’s no wonder Toyota continues to run this show But when it comes to electric cars, the jury’s still out as to
which manufacturer will become the mainstay of electrics.
The most common electric cars on the road today are the Tesla
Model S, the Chevy Volt, and the Nissan LEAF. But between small
production levels of compliance cars and new entries designed to
compete with the front-runners, there are now more than a dozen
electric vehicles from which to choose.
Which will reign supreme is still anyone’s guess. However, we do know that a number of these manufacturers are
upping the ante in major way for future releases. And the two main
sticking points for consumers are range and price. So let’s take a look at the specs of what’ll soon be hitting the
showrooms...
Tesla Model 3
- All-electric range: 250 miles
- Retail cost: $35,000 without federal tax incentive/$27,500 with federal tax incentive
- Launch date: 2017
Chevy Bolt
- All-electric range: 200 miles
- Retail cost: $37,500 without federal tax incentive/$30,000 with federal tax incentive
- Launch date: 2017
Nissan LEAF
- All-electric range: 250 miles (estimated)
- Retail cost: $30,000 (est.) without federal tax incentive/$22,500 (est.) with federal tax incentive
- Launch date: 2017
Both BMW and Audi have new electric offerings coming too, yet
specs on these models are still somewhat under wraps. I’m not sure how many more Fiat 500es will be made either, but
Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne has criticized the vehicle from day
one, actually telling customers not to buy it. Apparently it
continues to have software problems, too.
This will really never be more than a compliance car, and quite
frankly, it’s not even worth considering in terms of the big
technological disruptions in the coming years. As far as I know,
there are no future plans to offer a better version. Also not coming soon are newer versions of the Chevy Spark EV
— which is actually a cool little car that comes with a
pretty decent price tag. Sure, it’ll only give you about 70 miles
on a charge, but for a city car or a car that’ll take you to and
from work every day, it’s not a bad deal.
Charge times are as little as 20 minutes (for an 80% charge), and
with the federal tax credit, you can get one for about $18,500.
And if you live in a state that offers its own incentives, you
could pay even less. In Maryland, with both state and federal tax incentives, I could
pick one up for about $16,000. Not bad for a car that’ll never
need a drop of gasoline, a single oil change, or a pricey
emissions test.
Admittedly, it’s not quite as comfortable or as stylish as a
Tesla Model S — but for the price, you can’t beat it. In any event, from an investor’s point of view, the three
manufacturers to watch are Tesla, Nissan, and GM (NYSE: GM).
Obviously Tesla is the pure play here. Whether or not
you want to take a position in Tesla is really based on how much
faith you have in Elon Musk and his ability sell the company’s
next-generation Model 3. And don’t forget the energy storage
business Musk is running as well. Certainly I wouldn’t invest in GM or Nissan to get a piece of the
electric vehicle market. But continue to watch for new
developments in battery chemistries, software designs, and
next-generation, lightweight materials that could offer a backdoor
way to play the booming electric vehicle market. Because rest assured, the age of electric transportation is here
to stay. And getting a piece of this action today is like getting
a piece of Ford (NYSE: F) right before the first Model T rolled
off the line.
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2015/07/2017_electric_car_investment_guide_1.html