What is 3E + S? It is neither a mathematics problem nor chemical
equation. It is Japan’s latest long-term energy plan, which was released
by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on June 1stf for review. The draft plan aims to establish an optimum energy mix by the year 2030.
The three Es stand for the first letters in Energy Security, Economic
Efficiency and Environment and the letter S stands for Safety. Safety
is crucial to the energy plan in the wake of the world’s worst nuclear
disaster since Chernobyl when the devastating tsunami and earthquake hit
northeast Japan in 2011. Since the disasters, Japan’s electricity generation mix has drastically changed.
The fear of nuclear power plants led to the shutting down of 54 of
the nation’s nuclear reactors, which used to provide about 30 percent of
the nation electricity. To make up for the loss of electricity supplied
by nuclear means, Japan turned its heads toward coal and Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG). The nation’s sharp increase in fossil fuel demand
caused the price of LNG, linked to crude oil import price, to soar.
The transition from nuclear to fossil fuels caused the nation’s
energy self-sufficiency percentage to plummet to a mere 6 percent and
Japan’s greenhouse gasses to hit an alarming record high in 2013. The
increase cost of fossil fuel imports and the nationwide feed-in tariff
(FIT) program has also increased electricity prices by 30 percent for
industry users and 20 percent for residential consumers.
New Plan to Reverse the Effect of Fossil Fuels
The 3E + S plan aims to reverse the effects brought by the increased
consumption of fossil fuels. Japan specifically wants to improve its
self-sufficiency to 25 percent above the pre-disaster level. It also
hopes to control and reduce electricity cost for the nation’s industry
to gain back a competitive advantage while reducing greenhouse gas
emissions to the same level as the Western nations.
3E + S = Optimum Energy Mix for Japan?
In theory, to achieve the optimum “3E + S,” the nation plans to
implement thorough energy efficiency measures to reduce overall
electricity consumption, maximize renewable resources, improve the
efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power generation systems, and reduce
dependency on nuclear power for safety.
If Japan expands domestically available renewable energy, it can
improve self-sufficiency and reduce CO2 emission. However, if Japan
wants to reduce the cost of electricity, it may need to control the amount of high-cost renewable
and expand low-cost fossil-fueled power. Furthermore, revitalizing
nuclear power plants can be an option to improve self-sufficiency,
reduce CO2 emission and possibly reduce the cost of electricity.
Japan needs to arrive at a right balance between Energy Security
(self-sufficiency), Environment (CO2 reduction) and Economic (Cost of
electricity) while still keeping safety as a number one priority. In the energy plan, Japan’s electricity generation mix in 2030
comprises of 22 to 24 percent of renewable, 20 to 22 percent of nuclear,
27 percent of LNG, 26 percent of coal and 3 percent of oil. The share
of renewable more than doubled from the 2011 disasters while the share
of oil drastically got reduced from 8 percent to 3 percent.
Source: METI
Within the renewable section of electrical generation, hydropower
accounts for the largest share (8.8 percent to 9 percent), followed by
solar photovoltaic (PV) with 7 percent, then biomass with 3.7 percent to
4.6 percent. The plan calls for maximizing deployment of renewable to replace
existing nuclear and fossil fuel power. Geothermal, hydro and biomass
power, which can produce stable supply, will be used as a replacement
for nuclear power. Solar and wind power, which are intermittent and
variable by nature, will also partially replace fossil fuel power.
The plan, however, notes that deployment of renewable, specifically
PV and wind, will be limited within the amount of financial burdens that
ratepayers can bear to support the nation’s FIT program. Japan spent
over 9 trillion yen on fuels and 0.5 trillion yen on payments for the
FIT in 2013. In 2030, the fuel cost is expected to be down to 5.5
trillion yen while the FIT payment will increase to about 4.0 trillion
yen.
The plan also specifies to deploy geothermal, hydro and biomass power
first, then intermittent power of solar and wind. Between solar and
wind, wind has a priority since it has a lower FIT payment than solar. With the constraint of the FIT payments, the nation will be able to
generate 236.6 to 251.5 TWh of electricity from the mix of renewable.
To reach the 2030 goal, the largest capacity addition will come from
PV of 64 GW (9 MW from residential and 55 MW from non-residential
systems), followed by hydropower (mostly large-scale) of about 49 GW and
wind of 10 GW.
Public Comments Seek More Renewables…Or Not
The METI opened for public comments on the 2030 energy plan. About
19,000 comments were submitted by public within 30 days of the release
of the plan. The nation quickly divided into two groups: Those who seek more renewable and those who ask for less. The Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (JREF) stated that the METI’s
goal to set a renewable share to 22-24 percent in 2030 is too
pessimistic. JREF believes that it will be possible for the nation to
cover 45 percent of its electricity needs by renewable like other G7
nations. It recommends increasing the renewable portion to at least 30
percent under the Energy Plan.
The Japan Federation of Bar Associations (JFBA) stated that the plan
should not consider revitalization of nuclear power and increase
deployment of distributed renewable energy systems that are safe and
reduce CO2 emissions. The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) stated the goal to
reduce electricity procurement costs should be much higher to remove a
competitive disadvantage that the domestic industry has experienced for
the last several years. It also stated that the nations’ FIT policy,
which has supported a massive amount of PV capacity, rather than
well-diversified renewable mix, is a cause of the rate increase and will
bring further financial burden to ratepayers. The JCCI believes that
the nation has to stop the rate increase as soon as possible. To do so,
the nation needs to put a limit on new PV capacity, set a limit on PV
system size, and cut FIT payments for PV. With consideration of the public comments, the Cabinet will decide to approve the nation’s energy target by the middle of July.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/07/japans-long-term-energy-plan-shoots-for-ultimate-balance-in-economics-environment-and-safety.html