The American Wind Energy Association’s (AWEA) internal assessments currently show about 100 GW of opportunity for wind under the Clean Power Plan, Michael Goggin, senior director of research for AWEA, said on Sept. 11. “Wind energy is one of the most widely available
choices for states to use for compliance,” Goggin said during an AWEA
briefing on the final Clean Power Plan and the anticipated role for wind
energy.
Speaking during the briefing, Tom Vinson, vice president of federal
regulatory affairs for AWEA, said that changes in the final Clean Power
Plan rule for how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) treats
renewable energy in setting state targets likely will provide a greater
opportunity for wind to play a role in states’ compliance than was
available in the draft rule.
“Our view was that the alternative proposal that EPA had put out with
respect to considering the economic and technical feasibility of
renewables is a way to incorporate renewables into state target setting,
and made a great deal of sense,” Vinson said. “We were pleased to see
that EPA went in that direction in the final rule.” According to Vinson, the way the final rule sets the state targets
has had the effect of shifting around some individual state targets and
improving the opportunity for wind.
Compliance and Development Time Frames
Under the final rule, states can choose either a rate-based
compliance program – tons of CO2 per MWh – or they can choose a
mass-based compliance program – total tons of carbon. Even though MWh generated by facilities built after 2012 can only be
used for compliance starting in 2022, there still are incentives for
developers to move ahead now with wind energy projects, according to
Vinson.
“In a mass-based concept, if you’re deploying wind energy now, then
you are lowering the overall tons that you’re going to start the
compliance period with in 2022, because the MWh being generated by wind
are going to displace tons from your fossil units,” he said. “In a
rate-based concept, you would have a larger zero-emitting asset base if
you build wind between now and then that you could start 2022 with.”
In addition, EPA included a Clean Energy Incentive Program (CEIP) in
the final Clean Power Plan as an incentive to begin emissions reductions
in the near term. Under the CEIP, eligible projects – wind, solar or energy efficiency
in low income communities – can generate credits that can be banked in
2020 and 2021 to be used for compliance in 2022 or later.
The CEIP is capped at 300 million tons, Vinson said, and EPA is
taking comments on the program for certain policy design elements. Gene Grace, senior counsel for AWEA, said during the briefing that
EPA may decide to carve up the 300 million tons so that half would go to
energy efficiency, and the remaining would be divided between solar and
wind. He added that there is also a chance that other zero-emitting
resources might be incorporated into the program.
Political and Legal Considerations
While the U.S. Congress has been looking for ways to put limitations
on EPA’s final rulemaking or block it altogether, Vinson said AWEA does
not expect those legislative challenges to succeed. “Even if they were able to get through both the [U.S. House of
Representatives] and the [U.S.] Senate and get to [President Barack
Obama’s] desk, the President has been very clear that he would veto
those [challenges], and I don’t think anybody sees the numbers in
Congress necessary to override a Presidential veto,” he said.
In terms of court challenges, AWEA expects that as soon as the final rule is published in the Federal Register, a new round of lawsuits against the rule will be filed. “We generally believe that the final rule is on a solid legal
foundation, but we do concede that 111d does not have a ton of legal
precedent, and no one can say with certainty how those legal cases are
going to play out,” Vinson said.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/09/awea-opportunity-for-wind-energy-under-clean-power-plan-could-reach-100-gw.html
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