New Hampshire, USA --
Coal contributes 60 percent to India's power mix today; solar is less
than 1 percent. But what was a factor-of-seven difference between the
cost of coal and solar two years ago shrank this summer to just a 1.8x
gap. Can solar catch up within the next ten years?
In 2011 big coal plants were signing PPAs with tariffs for INR
2.8/kWh while solar was as high as 18/kWh. Now large grid-connected
solar can be had at INR 7/kWh, while imported coal, on the rise to help
offset a ~10 percent power deficit (baseload) exacerbated by rapidly
rising power demand, is pushing INR 4/kWh without taking into account
subsidies or cost of externalities. And that doesn't begin to address
the challenges of grid-connecting villages, much less the hundreds of
millions of citizens who remain off-grid.
The answer to this lies in domestic solar power, both centralized and
distributed, built relatively fast at any size and requiring less than 1
percent of the nation's land. Four factors have to come into play,
though, for solar to truly supplant coal in India in the next decade,
according to Tobias Engelmeier, managing director at Bridge to India:
- Looking at longer-term costs. Getting solar costs down to
INR 5/kWh in the next couple of years, and lower beyond that, will
require improved materials, production, and efficiencies, but long-term
solar costs are heading downward. Costs of non-replenishing fossil fuels
including coal, meanwhile, will increasingly depend on foreign supply
and demand markets.
- Costs of infrastructure and grid management. As an infirm
power source, solar's higher incorporation will require extra
investments in a number of areas from storage to demand response. On the
other hand, adding more coal plants and imports will mean more
infrastructures in mining and a supply chain for imports. It's still
unclear how those all will compare.
- Measuring externalities. Beyond simple end market pricing,
coal has several arguable cost-adders that should be factored in, most
notably pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, water usage, soil
degradation, etc. Factoring in all costs will increasingly be important.
- Valuing energy security. Notice how U.S. foreign policy
decisions, including wars, made in the past few decades have been linked
to dependence on imported oil? Don't expect India to follow that lead,
given global politics and current supply situations.
Have an Idea for Renewable Energy In India? In May
2014 the 5th annual Renewable Energy World India exhibition and
conference returns to New Delhi in 2014, now alongside DistribuTECH
India and co-located events POWER-GEN India & Central Asia and
HydroVision India. The call-for-papers deadline
is this Friday, October 25; topics can range from solar to wind to
biomass to geothermal and heat pumps, waste-to-energy, hybrid plants,
energy storage, resource forecasting, and numerous related issues.
IN THE NEWS
Japanese Cleantech Funds Seek Local Backing:
Ohisama Energy Fund Co. and Japan Green Fund Co. are seeking up to ¥2
billion (US $20 million) from local banks, credit unions, and citizens
to help set up local renewable energy projects and keep funds in the
area. Projects in line for funding include solar and biomass in Nagano
Prefecture and other projects in Hokkaido, Fukushima, Kanagawa and
Yamaguchi prefectures by early next year.
Is This China's Next Solar Heavyweight?
Shunfeng Photovoltaic reportedly is the frontrunner in bids to provide
funding for Suntech as the company works through its bankruptcy woes.
That's interesting since Shunfeng also bought 20 percent of LDK, notes
Doug Young. Also interesting is who apparently they're beating out for
Suntech: GCL Poly, Wuxi Guolian, and earlier Yingli and Trina.
Update on Fukushima Offshore Floating Wind Project:
A consortium of Japanese companies led by Marubeni and Mitsubishi are
making progress on an offshore floating wind farm project off the coast
of Fukushima, a project underway since March 2012.
The undersea high-voltage cable and dynamic cable have been laid and
connected from the now-moored 2-MW turbine and 66-kV floating substation
to the onshore transmission line tower. Power is expected to start
flowing in late October, with operations commencing in November pending
weather and sea conditions.
China's Huaneng Investing in Renewable Energy Projects:
Huaneng Power plans to invest 445 million yuan in a 48-MW wind farm in
China's Hunan province, with funding to come from bank loans and
internal resources. The company also wants to pour 1.21 billion yuan
into a 237-MW gas-fired distributed power project in the Guangxi Zhuang
Autonomous Region. Huaneng Renewables, meanwhile, is seeking to raise about US $200 million
from a proposed sale of about 582 million shares, roughly 17 percent of
its H shares. The placement price of HK $2.71 is about 7 percent lower
than its Oct. 11 closing price.
Wind Turbine Manufacturing in Taiwan:
Opening the wind turbine market to the private market, particularly
given local electronics manufacturers' applicable skills, would create
jobs and help state-owned Taiwan Power Co. bring on more renewable
energy, but there's still disagreement whether there's enough support to
unseat support for nuclear energy in the near-term, according to
debates at a forum in Taipei.
Biomass Update in Thailand:
Ratchaburi Electricity is looking for new biomass projects in
Thailand's south where there's agricultural waste to support it and
feasibility studies underway for several potential sites, according to
CEO Pongdith Potchana. The company's 9.9-MW Songkhla biomass plant is
currently under construction and expected to come online next summer.
The government wants to double its biomass generating capacity by 2021
to 3.63 GW.
European Group Invests in Manila Renewables:
ThomasLLoyd Group is investing $210 million to partly fund 120 MW of
renewable energy projects in the Philippines. Site development and
construction has already begun for the four 20-25 MW biomass projects
and a 22-MW solar project.
Green Light for Two Filipino Hydro Projects:
SUNWEST Water and Electric Co. is pledging to begin construction next
year on two hydropower projects: the 15-MW Main Aklan in Libacao, and
the 6-MW Pinacanauan plant in Peñablanca, both of which have been deemed
commercially feasible by government energy authorities. Both are
scheduled to be completed in 2017. SUWECO recently opened up a 600-kW
hydro plant in Sorsogon City, and is developing a 8-MW plant in
Bugasong, to be operational by year's end.
Japan-Built Geothermal Unit in Indonesia:
Japan's Sumitomo Corp. has won a contract to work PT Rekayasa Industri
and Fuji Electric for the new 35-MW fifth unit of the Kamojang
geothermal station in Garut. Construction will be done in 2015.
A DEEPER LOOK
Inside India's Latest Solar Policy Guidelines: India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has approved guidelines for the next phase
of the country's National Solar Mission (NSM), which called for bids
for 750 MW of solar plants, offering about 18.75 billion rupees ($303
million) in grants. Here's a summary of the latest draft proposal's
high points and key changes, from a sizable domestic content provision
to a tweak to viability gap funding (VGF) and some reassurances for both
developers and state manager SECI.
India's Plan to Harness Biomass: The New York Times
takes a closer look at India's goals for biomass as a growing renewable
energy source and economic enabler for its agriculture sector which
supports more than half the nation's population. Taking its cues from
Europe's embrace of biomass, India sees the potential to generate at
least 18 GW of electricity, part of overall plans to more than double
its renewable energy supply to 55 GW by 2017. That runs somewhat
contrary, though, to another report that a dozen biomass power plants have scaled back their output since demand for the costlier power source has plummeted in the past year.
ON THE HORIZON
Government Support for Biomass In Rural Malaysia:
The Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water wants to help rural
communities better organize and develop "a more entrepreneurial bent" to
help drive more biomass projects and products, including energy. The
country is targeting 800 MW of renewable energy by 2020, and part of
that will require 6-9 million tonnes of biomass, which the government
calculates will translate to about RM 9 billion in gross national Income
(GNI). "Biomass is [...] poised to play a very important part in our
economic future," noted Deputy Minister, Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/10/asia-report-four-reasons-why-solar-can-unseat-coal-in-india-this-decade
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