Energy in the 21st century is already turning out to be very
different from energy in the 20th century. Coal plants that used to
provide most of the country's electricity are being shut down by the
hundreds and renewable energy is becoming more cost efficient and
prevalent by the day.
The trends are heavily in favor of renewable energy, and solar energy in particular is taking the U.S. and the world by storm.
Renewable energy becoming a big player
Since
2007, electricity generation from coal has fallen 24.9% from 2.02
billion MW-hrs to 1.51 billion MW-hrs in 2012. Meanwhile, over the same
time frame wind grew 309% to 140.8 million MW-hrs and solar grew 607% to
4.3 million MW-hrs. That doesn't include distributed solar on
residential rooftops or any installations from 2013, which was a record
year for solar, installing about 4.4 GW in the U.S.
SunPower
(tickerSPWR ) and First Solar (FSLR ) are driving solar energy
production growth and SolarCity (SCTY ) is growing the residential space
rapidly. Of course, renewable energy from wind and solar is still
only about 3.2% of total electricity produced but you can see that the
trajectory for renewable energy is only moving higher.
Drivers of renewable energy growth
While
electricity generated from wind is much larger than solar today, it's
not the future of renewable installations. Most of the easily and
economically developable wind resources in the U.S. have been exploited
and costs aren't falling as rapidly as they are in solar.
The
solar industry is where there's high potential because solar power has
the potential to provide enough electricity for the entire country and
costs are still falling rapidly. Utility scale projects are less than
half of what they cost in 2010 and residential projects are about
one-third cheaper. If we go back even further, the cost of a solar panel
35 years ago was more than $100 per watt and today you can get one for
around $0.65 per watt, a cost reduction of more than 99%.
To put
today's costs into perspective, a solar power plant will generate
optimal energy about 20%-25% of the time, meaning that each watt will
produce about 1.75-2.19 kW-hrs of electricity each year. A utility scale
project with a 10% return on investment would create electricity for
9.3 to 11.7 cents per kW-hr without subsidy. That compares to an average
price of 9.6 cents per watt overall in the U.S.
The driver of
coal's declining role in electricity and the growth in renewable energy
-- particularly solar -- is economics. As costs continue to fall, we'll
see more growth for renewable energy and you can make money off the
trend.
How you can make money off growth in renewable energy
With
all of the trends I've pointed out above, you can see that renewable
energy has a bright future. Solar power in particular is an attractive
market for investors. Three companies leading the way are First
Solar, SunPower, and SolarCity. First Solar is a world-class utility
scale project builder and still the most profitable company in the
industry. SunPower makes the industry's most efficient panels and builds
both giant solar farms as well as small residential projects. SolarCity
is the dominant residential solar player, making going solar accessible
for millions of Americans.
As the industry grows, these three
companies will be major beneficiaries. The future of energy is in these
cleaner sources of power that are suddenly economically viable as well.
They will dominate energy in the 21st century and that's where I think
you should be looking to invest.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/01/31/renewable-energy-winning/5082181/
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