Soaring demand from China, Japan and the U.S. ensures that the
first-tier photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturers are booked in orders
up to the first quarter of 2016. Currently, prices are rising for all
multi-Si products from wafers to cells and modules, with wafers having
the largest increase due to news of supply shortages.
On the other hand,
the mono-Si market has not benefited from the sharp rise in demand
during this year’s second half. Corrine Lin, analyst for EnergyTrend, a
division of TrendForce, said that while the global mono-Si wafer
capacity has exceeded 14GW in 2015, this year’s annual demand in the
mono-Si end market is projected to be under 10GW. Trades of mono-Si
products have remained weak as supply outstrips demand.
Nonetheless, demand of mono-Si products will warm up next year, as
they become more accepted in the PV power plant market. Furthermore, PV
cell manufacturers have expanded the adoption of the passivated emitter
rear cell (PERC) technology and found that PERC produces better
efficiency results on mono-Si cells than on multi-Si cells. PERC
solutions from different companies are expected to drive the mono-Si
market next year when they have become more mature. Though mono-Si
products are currently in severe oversupply, their share within the
overall product mix will gradually increase starting this year.
Furthermore, mono-Si wafer manufacturers have plans to significantly
expand their capacities in the next year or two, and the global mono-Si
wafer capacity is projected to increase by 20% in 2016.
Price slump continues in the mono-Si wafer market while the multi-Si market benefits from soaring orders
The N-type mono-Si wafer market has been relatively calm compared to
the P-type mono-Si wafer market, which has seen greater price
competition. Because of a serious supply glut, the average price of
mono-Si wafers has kept falling from US$1.04/pc at the start of this
year to the current price of US$0.92~0.93/pc. Though the demand-supply
situation appears to stabilize for now, price rebound is unlikely and
profit margins will stay low. Low mono-Si wafer prices also drive down
the costs of mono-Si cells. In China, for instance, some mainstream
mono-Si cell products are now at around RMB 2.35/W, matching the prices
of multi-Si cells for the first time. This also indicates that module
companies are now able to make mono-Si products with high
cost-performance ratios.
According to EnergyTrend’s latest price forecast, the multi-Si wafer
market has reached a rare state of equilibrium due to a surge of orders
from the cell manufacturers. Consequently, multi-Si wafer suppliers have
raised their prices in October, starting with leading polysilicon and
wafer supplier GCL. Currently, multi-Si wafer prices have reached RMB
6.15/pc in China and are moving towards US$0.84/pc in Taiwan. In the
mono-Si cell market, only a few module manufacturers are sending out
orders. Mono-Si cell demand is also supplemented by orders outsourced
from some larger PV enterprises. EnergyTrend concludes that while
mono-Si wafer demand remains weak, but suppliers will likely develop
more proactive pricing or business strategies to extend the market
shares of mono-Si products.
http://pv.energytrend.com/price/MonoSi_Market_is_the_Only_Exc eption_to_A_Hot_PV_Sector.html
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