New Hampshire, USA --
India's solar market is on track to be roughly the same in 2013 as it
was in 2012, which is surprising given the ~20 percent overall growth
projected for global solar demand. But optimism and expectations
continue to emerge for India's solar potential.
The latest analysis, Mercom Capital's quarterly market update,
suggests 1,750 MW of solar will be installed in India next year,
including 420 MW of CSP pushed out from this year. That's coming off of a
somewhat quiet 2013, defined by high inflation, rising module prices
and a depreciating rupee, and low bidding in reverse auctions.
Still, word on the ground is that developers think the current model
was working, and that a five-year viability gap funding period will make
it harder for all but the largest companies to get financing, says
Mercom's Raj Prabhu. Manufacturers, meanwhile, are said to be upbeat,
hoping for domestic content requirements to continue, and claiming
utilization rates far above media speculation (70-100 percent vs. 25
percent), and some are making panels for Chinese companies to be sent to
Europe. And interestingly, utilities are said to be pushing back
against large companies' captive power projects, fearful of losing those
big customers despite an unwillingness to ensure reliable quality
power.
The comprehensive report also takes snapshots of JNNSM Phases I and
II, and individual state policy highlights, from Gujarat's
still-in-debate retroactive tariff cuts to net metering in Andhra
Pradesh to a 10,000 rooftop solar install program likely completed by
year's end.
IN THE NEWS
EU Tacks 42 Percent Tariff on Chinese Solar Glass:
The European Union has imposed tariffs as high as 42.1 percent on solar
glass from China as penalty for allegedly dumping product in Europe
below cost and hurting domestic producers. It's a separate decision from
the broader restrictions levied this spring, and affects just a portion of the overall market, but nonetheless will probably heighten trade tensions all over again.
Is Japan Heading for a Solar Slump?
The surge in solar energy development is drawing comparisons to a "gold
rush," but within that is concern that too many lack experience and
expertise to turn dreams into reality. Less than 15 percent of projects
approved for the government's latest subsidy approved last summer have
been put into service, according to METI, which has launched an
investigation into what's holding things up -- from lack of funding to
grid interconnection complexities to the reliance on domestic equipment
and suppliers. Nevertheless, solar development continues to push ahead.
SoftBank and Mitsui are building two solar power stations in Japan,
a 22MW one in the southwestern prefecture of Kumamoto and a 20-MW one
on Fukuoka prefecture, both expected to be online by March 2015. Suzuki
is planning an 18-MW plant
in an industrial park in Shizuoka prefecture to start in the fall of
2015, and is eyeing two more locations nearby. And Eurus Energy is
developing a 14-MW project on a golf course straddling the Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.
Tata Power Eyeing More Wind, Solar:
Tata Power is pledging $260 million annual investment in renewable
energy and wants more solar and wind energy acquisitions. Since last
month's purchase of a 39-MW wind farm in western Gujarat from AES "we
have got a lot of interest from other owners of solar and wind operating
assets who want to exit their investment," according to Rahul Shah, the
chief of business development for India business and renewables. Tata
operates about 400 MW of wind projects and 30 MW of solar but is eyeing
up to 370 MW to take on, possibly starting by the end of the current
fiscal year in March 2014. Margins are about half that of coal and gas
plants (12-18 percent vs. 20-30 percent) but performance is more
predictable and thus so are its returns, he added.
First Solar Makes Japanese Inroads:
First Solar has pledged to invest $100 million in Japan to develop
solar power plants both by itself and with local partners. First up: a 1.4-MW (DC) solar project in Kitakyushu-shi,
with operations commencing in the first quarter of 2014. The company
holds 100 percent equity in the project, with Obayashi and Yaskawa
Electric doing the actual building. The company also has inked a distribution agreement with JX Nippon Oil & Energy, including developing and manufacturing its recently-acquired TetraSun high-efficiency technology.
IBM, Bharat Light Target India Wind Farm Output:
IBM and Bharat Light & Power have inked a 10-year deal to use IBM
cloud computing technologies and analytics to better manage data
generated by its renewable power generation sources, which they say will
"significantly improve BLP's Plant Load Factor" (no specific number
given) and increase power generation capacity. Bharat currently owns
about 200 MW of wind farms but is expanding into solar, biomass, hydro,
and eventually energy storage.
Battery storage in Japan:
Tohoku says it will build a 40-MW (20 MWh) lithium-ion battery demo
system at the Tohoku Electric Power substation in west Sendai. It's
expected to be online by February 2015.
Taiwan Tweaks Solar Tariff Cuts:
Taiwan's tariffs on solar energy will drop by 12.45 percent for the
first half of next year, slightly less than a proposed 14.23 percent
cut. Solar power suppliers had argued the stiffer dropoff would
exacerbate pricing competition and rising maintenance costs. An
additional 2-3 percent decline in the tariff reduction is planned for
the second half of the year.
SunPower Targets Solar Water Pumps in India:
SunPower has launched a new product with specific application: a solar
PV-based water pump designed for rural agriculture, designed by U.S. and
Indian teams, to help farmers with year-round cultivation and daytime
irrigation.
LDK Adds Financing, With Conditions:
LDK Solar has secured financing with 11 commercial Chinese banks for
RMB 1.56 billion, but the proceeds are strictly to be used for onshore
operations within Jiangxi Province, ramping manufacturing operations and
not to service any debt.
Biomass in India:
The Haryana Renewable Energy Development Agency (HAREDA) has
commissioned a 9.9-MW biomass plant in Khurawata village, Mahendergarh
district. The project on 15 acres will use mustard and arhar stalks and
other agro fuel. Up to three more biomass projects of 12 MW each are being installed in the state now.
Toshiba, Orix Team for Geothermal in Japan:
Toshiba and Orix said they will jointly establish a new geothermal
power company in Nakao, Okuhida Onsen, Gifu Prefecture, majority owned
by Toshiba and with total capital of ¥198 million. After assessing
commercial viability of the hot spring sources, the plans are to build a
2 MW output plant to start online in 2015.
A DEEPER LOOK
India Going All-In for Centralized Solar?
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy's (MNRE) target of 2.52 GW of
solar capacity by 2017, which could rise to 3.6 GW if solar thermal
capacity is shifted over to PV as well, says Bridge to India. Slightly
less than half of that is already spoken for, from Phase I/batch one of
the NSM and the first of several massive 1 GW ultra-mega projects.
Absent any real centralized support for distributed generation, there's
a risk that this solar profile will be overwhelmingly centralized, the
analyst firm warns, even though arguments are strong to put generation
out where it's being consumed.
In the battle to bring India's biggest solar projects online, here
are some of the contenders. Bharat Heavy Electricals, the nation's
largest power equipment supplier, will soon start accepting bids
for a 1-GW plant, the first of a proposed 4-GW solar park in Sambhar,
Rajasthan state. Meanwhile, A separate 4.7-GW project planned in
Kharaghoda, Gujarat state, would include 700-MW of wind power as well.
And a 5-GW project is said to be in the works for the desert Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir state, on 20,000 acres of land.
ON THE HORIZON
Tasmania Pledges 100 Renewable Energy:
The Tasmanian Government is aiming high for renewable energy usage,
targeting 100 percent of its power mix by 2020. It's part of a broader
plan, dubbed Climate Smart Tasmania, that includes energy reduction across multiple functions and departments, and a 35 percent reduction in carbon emissions.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/11/asia-report-why-indias-solar-market-looks-brighter-in-2014
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