Based on a recent report (refer),
the government seems to be considering cutting solar tariffs in India
by offering power purchase agreements through bids in dollar terms. The
idea is that the ministry would help create a (real) hedging fund with a
corpus of INR 60 billion (approximately USD 1 billion) primarily by
charging developers a hedging fee of INR 0.90/kWh (1.5 US
cents/kWh). Such a scheme would help developers
access international capital and avoid reduce the currently high hedging
costs of around 6%.
- Pooling of hedging costs coupled with government’s support likely to make solar option attractive to discoms
- According to BRIDGE TO INDIA, a realistic expectation for solar tariff would be INR 5.8/kWh, around 9% lower than current tariffs
- We believe that government to focus on increasing the tenor of debt financing from ca. 14 years to 20 years, that alone could reduce solar tariffs by about 7%
The thought
behind this is that pooling the hedging costs and putting the
government’s weight behind it, will significantly reduce the cost of
currency hedging in the market. This would reduce the cost of capital
and thereby the cost of solar power, making it more attractive to
distribution companies. This is a creative, new idea and shows that the
government is thinking out of the box to make its ambitious solar
targets real.
The report states that
the mechanism could reduce solar tariffs by as much as 40% to bring the
down to INR 3.60/kWh (6 US cents/kWh). With the proposed hedging cost of
INR 0.90/kWh (1.5 US cents/kWh), effective tariff would be INR 4.50/kWh
(7.5 US cents/kWh), very close to the world’s lowest as currently seen
in the Gulf region.
BRIDGE TO INDIA’s
own calculations show that with an effective interest rate of 5%, the
tariff for a 50 MW solar project could be in the range of INR 4.9/kWh
(8.3 US cents) to INR 5.5/kWh (9.2 US cents/kWh). This is 14-23% lower
than the current tariff/kWh of about INR 6.4 (10.6 US cents/kWh) but
considerably higher than the government’s estimate of INR 3.60/kWh (6 US
cents/kWh). With the hedging cost of INR 0.90/kWh (1.5 US cents/kWh), a
realistic expectation for solar tariff would be INR 5.8/kWh, around 9%
lower than current tariffs. To us, therefore, it seems that the numbers
indicated by the government are too aggressive.
Another
moot point is the level of international lending appetite for Indian
solar projects. Our view is that apart from certain multi and bi-lateral
financing institutions (for example, IFC, US Exim, KFW), there is
actually very little demand for Indian solar projects in the
international debt markets. Hence, irrespective of the proposed cost
benefits, any approach that targets hedging costs is unlikely to be a
silver bullet solution for reducing the costs of Indian solar projects.
We
believe that the government should instead be looking at developing
indigenous financing solutions, particularly with a view to increasing
the tenor of debt financing from ca. 14 years to 20 years. That alone
could reduce solar tariffs by about 7%.
http://theenergycollective.com/tobias-engelmeier/2211866/india-exploring-solar-bids-dollar-terms-bring-down-tariffs
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