A "dark horse" is defined as a little-known entity that emerges to
prominence in the face of competition — a contestant that seems unlikely
to succeed. I borrow the term from a conversation last week, wherein
India was referred to as the dark horse in the global race to go solar. In passing as it might have been, there seems to be no better
description of India's Solar ambition, or of the backdrop in which India
has gained global prominence, simply by having the courage to Dream.
As the global industry steps out of the shadow of captivation that
has held the focus of the Solar world for the past three months, we
begin to see the first rays of light illuminate the path to India's
solar future.
The government is working overtime, and policies seem to be rolling
out faster than you can absorb the magnitude of the ambitions stated in
them. The country's leadership is engaging pro-actively with
industry participants creating an atmosphere conducive new entrants
in the industry, and innovative models are being explored to chart the
course to success. These initiatives provide an indication of the thought and vision
with which India has made a statement of its intent to be a world leader
in solar energy. To get a further insight into the underlying need and
rationale driving India's solar ambitions the following facts merit
consideration:
- The electricity sector in India has an installed capacity of 261 GW as of March 2015, which is the close to the installed capacity in China as of 2000.
- By 2013 the installed electricity capacity in China had increased to ~1245 GW, with approximately 70 percent of the contribution from thermal power plants.
- Apart from the Environmental concerns that have arisen as a result of this reliance on thermal power, coal price spikes over the years have contributed to accumulated losses of CNY 100 billion ($17 billion) in the Top 5 Thermal Generation companies in China since 2008!
At the time China had to make its decision to meet the electricity
demand fuelled by the increased focus on Manufacturing activities and
improving standard of living of its population, solar was neither as
efficient nor as competitive in pricing as thermal power generation
alternatives. Hence, China had no option but to choose a
coal-centric scenario to fuel its growth.
India, as we would all like to believe, is today placed in a scenario
similar to that of China in 2000. Of the 1.4 billion people of the
world who have no access to electricity in the world, India accounts for
over 300 million. India also needs to increase it's electricity
production — in concomitance with China's increase from 2000-2015 —
to meet with the government's commitment to provide 24x7 power to all
households and to realise Prime Minister Modi's dream to make India a
global destination for manufacturing.
However, with the drastic decrease in the cost of solar power over
the last 15 years, India today has a viable alternative to a
coal-dependent future. A future dependent on the most dependable of
sources for its input resource and which eases the pressure on our
country's import bill, rather than strains it. A future that is
technology dependent and hence gets progressively cheaper as its
deployment increases, and also subsequently secures the future of our
next generation rather than putting it at risk.
There are of course still plenty of unanswered questions, but there
is also the conviction and belief that the answers to these questions
will unravel themselves as we walk along the path. When conviction and
belief was enough to lead our nation to Independence, there should be no
reason to believe that it cannot lead us now from proverbial darkness to light as we ride into the sunrise of India's power revolution.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/04/the-dark-horse-in-the-global-solar-race-indias-100-gw-solar-ambition
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