Ireland’s
long-term plan is to reduce its dependence on imported gas for
producing energy. As wind speeds in Ireland are among the best in
Europe, it has built about 2,000 MW (end of June 2012) of wind turbines
during the past 10 years to supply energy to the Irish grid which uses
gas turbine plants to balance the wind energy. Very little of this
energy is exported to the UK.
The Project:
This is about to change, because Greenwire, a wind turbine project
investor/developer, has made a proposal to locate 3,000 MW of wind
turbines, say 1,000 @ 3 MW/each, arranged in ten 300 MW clusters of 100
wind turbines each, in the Irish Midlands by the end of 2018. All of the
wind energy would be exported to the UK.
Greenwire
estimated the useful service life of the proposed system at 25
years. Greenwire stated the proposed system would be entirely
independent of the Irish grid.
The
wind turbines would be tied together with underground cables to connect
to two 2,500 MW HVDC cables under the Irish Sea to two points in Wales,
to enable the UK to import 3,000 MW x 8,760 hr/yr x overall capacity
factor (after losses) 0.30 = 7,884,000 MWh/yr of variable, intermittent
wind energy. The wind energy balancing would be performed in the UK. The
grid in Wales would need to be modified to accept up to 2,500 MW at
either connection in the event of an HVDC cable outage.
The
UK wind energy balancing would be mostly with gas turbines in
inefficient part-load-ramping mode, as in Ireland, the Netherlands,
etc., and would have a similar CO2 emission reduction effectiveness,
i.e., about a 1 : 0.7 ratio, as in Ireland; 10% annual wind energy would
reduce the grid CO2 emission intensity, gram/kWh, by about 7%.
http://greenwire.ie/greenwire-project/#1
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/89476/wind-energy-co2-emissions-are-overstated
Project Cost: Greenwire claims an estimated total project cost of 8 billion euros
Wind turbine installed capital cost = 3,000 MW x 1,800,000 euro/MW = 5.4 billion euros
Other installation costs = 2.6 billion euros
Export Revenues:
Greenwire claims Ireland would have export revenues of 1.2 billion
euro/yr, which are, in fact, the gross revenues to Greenwire and
partners.
Energy sales price = (1,200,000,000 euro/yr)/(7,884,000,000 kWh/yr) = 0.152 euro/kWh
Note: The current annual average UK grid price is about 0.06 euro/kWh.
Job Creation: Greenwire claims up to 3,000 permanent project and "ancillary" jobs.
O&M for 3,000 MW of wind turbines, etc., requires about 10 - 15 workers/100 MW.
It appears, the proposed system is not a significant PERMANENT job creator.
RE
buildouts increase jobs in RE sectors and suppliers to these sectors,
but decrease more jobs in other sectors, for a NET JOB LOSS.
RE
buidouts divert resources (funds, materials, labor, etc.) to
inefficient ways of producing energy, which increases electric rates and
the prices of goods and services and lowers job creation, thereby
LOWERING living standards, instead of to more efficient production of
goods and services and increased energy efficiency, which decreases the
prices of energy and goods and services and increases job creation,
thereby RAISING living standards; per Economics 101.
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/71771/energy-efficiency-first-renewables-later
Project Payments to Locals, i.e., Bribes: Greenwire claims annual payments of about 50 million euro/yr to:
-
local landowners, mostly farmers who receive several thousand euros/MW
to put up with the adverse health, noise and visual impacts of wind
turbines near their residences and animals.
- local authorities in the Irish Midlands to defray the costs of additional government operations and enlargements.
With
a setback of 1 - 2 km to minimize health, noise and visual impacts,
significant areas of the Midlands will become undesirable/uninhabitable
within and near these clusters.
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/84293/wind-turbine-noise-and-air-pressure-pulses
The
50 million euro/yr appears to be the trade off (bribe?) for further
blighting the Irish landscape, and spreading adverse health, noise and
visual impacts on people and on bird wildlife.
Irish Wind Energy vs UK Offshore Energy: Greenwire
claims UK consumer savings of 9 billion euros compared to sourcing the
same quantity of energy offshore, or 25-year savings/25-yr production =
9,000,000,000 euro/197,100,000,000 MWh = 0.0457 euro cent/kWh.
For
the Greenwire claim to be true, the offshore energy cost would need to
be = 0.152 + 0.0457 = 0.1977 euro/kWh, in line with other estimates. See
website.
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/47519/base-power-alternatives-replace-base-loaded-coal-plants
An Eight Billion Euro Tax Shelter:
The financing will be primarily by Greenwire’s wealthy partners, many
of them in the US, who use LLC-type entities created by financial sector
firms on Wall Street and in London to enable wealthy individuals and
others to take tax credits and depreciation write-offs to reduce
taxable incomes; by special provision, almost the entire project can be
written off in 5 years; so-called “5-year accelerated depreciation”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/9336027/Subsidies-for-onshore-wind-farms-to-be-axed-by-2020.html
All
others, i.e., the other 99% of households and smaller businesses, will
bear the brunt of the health, noise and visual impacts and the energy
generating inefficiencies. See below.
Government Support:
The UK government needs to meet its 2020 RE targets, including 28,000
MW of wind turbines, in the face of increasing opposition to onshore
wind turbines. Because the wind turbines will be located in Ireland, the
government welcomed the proposed project. Element Power, parent of
Greenwire, and National Grid UK signed a grid connection agreement to
send up to 3,000 MW of power into the UK grid.
http://www.earthtechling.com/2012/07/ireland-prepares-to-feed-uks-wind-power-appetite/
A MUCH LESS COSTLY CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION ALTERNATIVE
A standard-size, 1,000 MW nuclear plant, located in the UK would produce 1,000 MW x 8,760 hr/yr x CF 0.90 = 7,884,000 MWh/yr.
The
energy is nearly CO2-free, relatively low-cost, steady, 24/7/365, with
nearly 100% “on-demand” capacity value, whereas wind energy is variable
and intermittent (zero or minimal about 10-15 % of the hours of a year),
and has zero “on demand” capacity value.
The alternative attributes are:
- the same quantity of energy as the wind turbine system
- no expensive transmission systems would be required
- no extra fuel consumption and CO2 emissions due to balancing with fossil plants
- the capital cost would be about 4 billion euros, 50% of the wind turbine system
- the useful service life would 50-60 years vs 25 years for the wind turbine system
- it would take about 10 years to build vs 6.5 years for the wind turbine system
- no subsidies would be required
If
the cost of O&M, fuel, etc., for the wind energy proposal and the
nuclear alternative are assumed about equal, say 0.09 euro/kWh, then the
cost of amortizing:
-
4 billion euro with 60-yr bonds @ 4%/yr for the nuclear alternative
would be 4 billion euro/22.62 annuity factor = 176.8 million euro/yr, or
0.0224 euro/kWh, and the cost of energy would be 0.09 + 0.0224 = 0.1124
euro/kWh, in line with US DOE estimates.
-
8 billion euro with 25-yr bonds @ 4%/yr for the wind energy proposal
would be 8 billion euro/15.62 annuity factor = 512.2 million euro/yr, or
0.0653 euro/kWh, and the cost of energy would be 0.09 + 0.0653 = 0.1553
euro/kWh, in line with Greenwire estimates.
Note: This does not include any wind energy integration fees which, if properly accounted for, would be about 0.01 euro/kWh.
Wind Energy Integration Fees
For
a proper evaluation of wind energy cost, the total would have to
include not only the LCOE of the wind turbines, but also all or part of
the LCOEs of:
- Increased regulating plant operation for grid stability; extra fuel and CO2
- Increased spinning plant operation; extra fuel and CO2
- Increased start/stop operations; extra fuel and CO2
- Increased part-load operation; less efficient, extra fuel and CO2
- Increased part-load-ramping operation; less efficient, extra fuel and CO2
- Increased wear and tear of equipment of generating units
- staffing, fueling and operation of most of the existing generating units
- less than optimum economical scheduling of plants due to wind energy on the grid
- less economical operation of existing plants due to increasing wind energy production
- expanded transmission and distribution systems
- increased grid management systems, staffing and operation
- increased weather and wind speed forecasting systems, staffing and operation
Rarely
are any of these costs identified, quantified and charged to wind
turbine owners as wind energy integration fees, i.e., they are getting a
free ride.
The
above costs are not yet seperately identified and quantified by grid
operators, generator owners and utilities, because heretofore they have
been relatively minor. But as wind energy percent increases, they will
be come increasingly greater expenses, as experienced by other grids
with greater than about 3% annual wind energy.
Grid operators typically add their extra costs to the invoices sent to utilites and generator owners that supply the grid.
Utilities
typically add their extra costs to their other costs to justify rate
increases. How generator owners will be compensated for the adverse
impact of wind energy on the economics of their generators remains an
open question.
Legislators,
who wear the "RE" label to get votes, and utilities, dependent on rate
increases from legislatures, are loathe to investigate, as it would be
considered adverse to RE. They usually work together to make these costs
“disappear”, i.e., "socializing" them by rolling any RE costs mostly
into household rate schedules.
Denmark,
an RE role model, has done it for decades and Danish households have
the highest electric rates in Europe (about 31.5 euro cent/kWh);
Germany’s households have the second highest rates (about 27 euro
cent/kWh), France enjoys the lowest (about 12 euro cent/kWh).
The
lowest-cost wind energy balancing is with hydro energy. Higher cost
wind energy balancing is with gas-fired, quick-ramping gas turbines. It
is highly unlikely all of the above costs are included in the wind
energy integration fees.
Hydro-Quebec, using hydro plants, charges wind turbine owners $5/MWh.
The Bonneville Power Authority, BPA, using hydro and gas turbine plants, charges $5.7/MWh.
The Netherlands, using gas turbine plants, charges $10/MWh.
http://www.lawofrenewableenergy.com/2009/07/articles/bpa-issues-decision-on-wind-integration-charge-in-2010-rate-case/
http://www.hydroworld.com/index/display/article-display/354308/articles/hydro-review/volume-26/issue-4/departments/the-leading-edge.html
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/98061/irelands-wind-energy-export-plan