New Hampshire, USA --
Armed with backgrounds and technologies from two related industries,
the resurrected thin-film solar PV company vows to show the industry
what scaling really is.
Siva Power, née Solexant, has re-emerged from stealth (again),
having circled around its thin-film solar PV roots to reorganize behind
copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS). The company now says it's
"de-risked" its technology and is ready to scale up to a 300-MW "pilot"
line, and ultimately build multi-gigawatt fabs on every major continent.
Three years ago the company planned to build a 100-MW CdTe fab in Oregon,
but as the plunging prices and soaring demand of silicon began
dominating the market and swamping other thin-film aspirants, Solexant
dove back into stealth in 2011, and reemerged this spring
as a CIGS developer. With Mattson, a former semiconductor equipment
exec, at the helm, Siva Power is championing a new direction:
three-stage co-evaporation on glass substrates with monolithic
integration.
Two Keys to Cost-Effective CIGS
Mattson calls CIGS development "a blessing and a curse." The
technology has the allure of tweaking several materials any number of
ways to enhance their integration and combined performance, but those
arrangements are tricky to control. Other CIGS developers have sought
simpler and cheaper manufacturing methods for CIGS, but they end up with
subsequent recrystallization steps that "are just a killer in the
manufacturing process," Mattson said. This means that they typically
have to go back and restart the process, which adds costs and time
— that's why the CIGS efficiency record has been stuck at around 20
percent in labs.
With its three-stage co-evaporation process, Siva says it can
manipulate the material composition to optimize each layer throughout
the device to maximize efficiency — a certain blend of material in the
bulk layer to maximize the sunlight being trapped, and different blends
at the back- and front-contacts to reduce recombination.
How to handle hot glass, and the design, materials and construction
of the source, are two keys at the heart of Siva's CIGS process
development work, Mattson explained. Three-stage co-evaporation is
linear with temperature, meaning the hotter it is the better the crystal
quality and faster it can be processed. But high temperatures are also a
limiting factor; typical solar glass loses strength and deforms far
below the melting point of the copper, meaning much delicate balancing
of temperatures — and related variables that can bring them more closely
into line, such as vacuum pressure or dopants — are required during the
deposition process. That also extends to the evaporative sources
themselves; the one that deals with the copper can itself be overwhelmed
by the extreme temperature and vapor pressures, causing reliability and
repeatability issues, he explained.
Asked about Solar Frontier, currently the only CIGS thin-film company
doing anything close to scale, Mattson questions both its process
complexity (more glass layers and encapsulant material, more processing
and deposition steps) and its cost structure within the giant parent
company. "I don't know how you can make them in a commodity market," he
says — adding that replicating complexity is not proper scaling (more on
scaling below).
But CIGS three-stage co-evaporation with high-vacuum processing and
handling needn't be as burdensome or as cost-impactful as some believe,
he said. They are "really no mystery" to the semiconductor manufacturing
sector, which long ago figured out how to optimize material layers for
multiple parameters and implement the very tight process control
required to do it with repeatable quality.
The Real Way to Scale
"People have missed the scaling thing," Mattson said. "They've scaled
uneconomically, doing small lines and making a lot of them — but it
turns out they're all unprofitable." Semiconductor and flat-panel
display makers, on the other hand, have shown us the real way to scale
up technology manufacturing, starting with exponentially bigger
substrate generations and huge machine throughput efficiency gains.
(That's why Siva is pursuing deposition on large 2 m2 glass
sheets.) Building larger factories to accommodate those types of
scale-ups doesn't require a comparable scale-up in spending, though, so
the economics end up being favorable.
And some of they tools they're using, such as depositing molybdenum
and transparent conductive oxides (TCOs), can be adopted into CIGS
production with a little customization, Mattson pointed out. Siva plans
to outsource about 70 percent of tool development to third-parties under
strict specifications and exclusivity, a la the First Solar model,
while keeping the heart of the production equipment and processing: the
chamber to co-evaporate the four materials. They're on the fourth
version of that tool, Mattson pointed out. "From our point of view,
we're not concerned about patents, but ownership of the technology,"
Mattson said.
Mock-up of Siva Power's 300-MW pilot line. Credit: Siva Power
Siva already has "de-risked" its technology, from process to
performance to costs, on what Mattson calls "a megawatt-category"
R&D line — and he argues that's how it should be done, improving the
tech and defining processes and costs at a small scale. Once the
architecture is locked in, throughputs are hit and cost structures are
determined, then it's time to talk about scaling up.
The next step for Siva is securing financing to build out a 300-MW
"pilot line," ten times the scale of a typical silicon PV line. The
company already has VCs as co-investors — $60 million over three rounds
from Trident, Firelake, Medley, DBL, and others — but now they're going
after "bigger pots of money in private equity," including strategic
company partners and potentially even governments. "We have done
deposition rate tests, we know we have the throughput," Mattson said, so
now "we have to build that toolset." He's agnostic where to put this
pilot line, saying it'll be "wherever we have our first major investor."
Mattson says his 300-MW factory will cost roughly $100 million to
build or $0.32/Watt in capital costs, less than a third of a 250-MW
four-line First Solar plant (or, triple its space efficiency at 30 kW/m2).
That would make it "the most efficient factory in the world from a
capex point of view," Mattson quipped. Off the planned success of that
first 300-MW line, Siva would seek an IPO to launch a gigawatt-sized
factory, which on those same metrics would cost about $300 million — but
again that's a gigawatt-sized line. The company is shooting for 2-GW
factories in several regional locations, which Mattson suggests isn't an
outrageous goal given demand projections of 60 GW right around the
corner.
There's another metric Siva's shooting for: $0.40/W manufacturing
costs, significantly lower than even silicon PV today. Most other solar
PV platforms "don't pencil out" under a rigorous cost-of-ownership
analysis, he asserts, spanning everything from processes to materials to
electricity usage to labor to tool depreciation. But co-evaporated CIGS
on glass with monolithic integration, with the fewest process steps and
the least material and with tighter process control, will hit that
target on a 15-percent-efficient module, Mattson said, adding that the
company has "a game-plan to get to 16 percent and further" with a goal
of setting the new CIGS efficiency record next year.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/11/siva-power-why-our-cigs-tech-will-rule-solar-pv
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