New Hampshire, USA --
Electricity demand is soaring in Northern Africa nations (Morocco,
Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) due to economic development, rising
living standards, and other factors, but the existing power
infrastructure is severely inadequate to handle it.
Supply is plunging
because of spiking demand in hot summers, threadbare infrastructure,
political instability (especially since the 2011 Arab Spring), financing
restrictions, and inadequate regulatory frameworks. Even so, power
generation projects and structural reforms to support them are pushing
forward in this region — and in many cases renewable energy is the best
solution, particularly tapping into solar and wind resources, according
to recent analysis from Frost & Sullivan.
Total power installed capacity in the North Africa region was
roughly 61.6 GW in 2012, with renewable energy (mostly hydro) accounting
for nearly 10 percent of that (6 GW). Total installed power capacity
likely will double by 2020 to 120 GW. Four of the five nations rely
heavily on natural gas (Morocco, with few resource options, mainly uses
coal), and likely will continue to do so through the end of this decade —
but all of them have lofty ambitions for developing renewable energy to
offset acute power shortages especially in summer months, according to
Frost & Sullivan industry analyst Celine Paton, author of the report
Power Infrastructure Tracker in Northern Africa.
Each of these nations has a significant pipeline of power capacity
projects, including ambitions for a lot more renewable energy, but when
and how those plans materialize depends greatly on government stability
and reforms both economic and regulatory — i.e. formation of independent
electricity bodies and addressing electricity subsidies for
conventional fossil fuel generation.
Power infrastructure statistics in Northern Africa in 2012. * Not all capacity is available.
**Solar component of integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) power plants. Credit: Frost & Sullivan.
**Solar component of integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) power plants. Credit: Frost & Sullivan.
Here's a nation-by-nation summary of renewable energy drawing boards in Northern Africa:
Morocco
Morocco, which imports nearly all of its electricity,
had slightly more than 2 GW of renewable energy installed capacity at
the end of 2020, almost all of it owned by national utility ONEE, and
most of it in hydro (1.77 GW), with the rest in wind (254 MW) and solar
(20 MW) — but it has an aggressive renewable energy goal of 42 percent
of installed capacity by 2020, including 2 GW each of solar and wind.
There's a law (13-09) which allows renewable-generated electricity to be
sold directly to grid-connected consumers instead of to ONEE.
Morocco's pipeline shows a number of sizeable (100 MW or larger) wind
projects finishing completion and expected to be commissioned in 2014;
developers include Nareva, UPC Renewables, EDF, Alstom, and CED
(Theolia). A 318-MW concentrated solar (CSP) plant, NOOR 1 (Ouarzazate
Phase I) is on the boards for 2015; further out are goals for 1.5 GW of
solar in the 2018-2020 timeframe.
The tendering process continues for five wind farms totaling 850 MW
in development between 2017-2020, with one among five pre-qualified
groups to be selected to do them: Acciona/Al Ajial Funds,
EDF/Mitsui/Alstom, ACWA Power/Gamesa, Nareva/TAQA/Enel Green
Power/Siemens, and International Power/GDF Suez/Vestas. The aim also is
to build up a local industry for component manufacturing/assembly.
Investors being assembled include the European Investment Bank, the
African Development Bank, Germany's KfW, and the European Union-Africa
Infrastructure Trust Fund.
Algeria
In 2011 Algeria pledged to install
22 GW of renewable energy by 2030, roughly 40 percent of supply, with
12 GW for its own use and 10 GW for export. Small-scale deployments
would begin by 2015, scaling up by 2020, including dozens of solar PV
and CSP plants (Algeria has world-class insolation)
and wind farms. As of 2012 Algeria had less than 300 MW of renewables,
almost all of it in 1950s/1960s-era hydropower. The nation also hosts
one of the first hybrid solar/combined cycle plants, with 20 MW of solar
out of the 150 MW Hassi R'Mel plant, commissioned in 2011.
Much of Algeria's renewable projects in the pipeline are longer-range. The first 400-MW tranche of a 1.2 GW solar PV target was awarded to a Yingli-led consortium
back in December. Beyond that, there's 2.5 GW of solar CSP and 516 MW
of wind in the planning stages, eyeing commissioning in 2023.
Tunisia
Tunisia wants to make renewable energy up to 30 percent of its electricity generation by 2030,
largely implemented through the Tunisian Solar Plan launched in 2009.
Self-generators can sell their excess electricity from renewable sources
to the Tunisian Company of Electricity and Gas (STEG). The country,
though, has been somewhat of a pioneer in renewable energy in the
region, setting up regulatory, legal, and financial frameworks since the
1980s. A 20 MW wind power plant began operations back in 1999. As of
2012 Tunisia had about 66 MW of hydro plants (commissioned since 1956)
and 173 MW of wind, spanning two plants commissioned and built by
Gamesa; the smaller one (53 MW Sida Daoud) was commissioned in phases
beginning in 2000.
Looking at Tunisia's pipeline, it has a 70 MW plant under
construction also by Gamesa, a 50-MW CSP feasibility project targeting
2017, a 400-MW pump storage plant looking out beyond 2020. Two hybrid
solar plans are still on the boards but seemingly shaky: a 1.2 GW CCGT
or coal plant with CSP feasibility project is on "standby" and "likely
to be cancelled," according to Frost & Sullivan, while an integrated
solar/combined-cycle plant categorized as "pre-feasibility" is
uncertain. Tunisia also has a proposed 2 GW CSP project also in the
pre-feasibility stage with a vague window of planning through 2020.
Libya
Libya wants to make renewable energy contribute 3 percent of its
total energy mix by 2015 and 10 percent by 2020, but officials have
suggested even bigger goals of 20 percent using solar alone by 2020. That's significant, from a starting point of zero percent in 2012, and not much better in 2013
with barely 4 MW of installed solar PV. At the moment, oil is used to
produce more than half the nation's energy with natural gas rapidly
coming on behind it. The country also wants to double power generation
within the next year and by 2.5x by 2020.
Large-scale solar and wind, thanks to Libya's desert environment and
long coastline, could play a big future role in energy demand both for
domestic use and for export, but incentives must be created. A fraction
of Libya's desert utilized for solar energy conceivably could power much
of Europe, which of course has been the core theme of the Desertec Initiative,
which wants to carpet parts of the Sahara with CSP and build out
massive transmission infrastructure to get the power to demand centers
in Europe.
And yet renewable energy uptake in Libya is severely hampered, both
by the heavy reliance on oil/natural gas, but also geopolitical
instability. Paton lists several hundred megawatts worth of wind and
solar projects that have been proposed, planned, and contracted --
virtually all of which have no completion or commissioning date, and
likely never will. "Many of these projects will not concretize any time
soon, if at all," because of the national insecurity and subsequent lack
of investors and companies willing to do business there.
Egypt
Egypt leads North Africa with installed renewable energy capacity,
with 2.8 GW of hydro and nearly 550 MW of wind. (Though political
instability there could open the door for Morocco to take the lead in
the region's renewable energy fairly soon.) The Ministry of Electricity
and Energy overseeing the Egyptian Electric Holding Company are seeking
20 percent of energy generation by renewable sources by 2020. Twelve
percent of that would be from new wind farms, encompassing 7.2 GW, a
third of which will be developed by the New & Renewable Energy
Authority and two-thirds from the private sector. The remaining
renewables push would be six percent from hydro
and two percent from other renewables, mostly solar. The Egyptian Solar
Plan, pledged in the summer of 2012, seeks to build out 3.5 GW of solar
by 2027, most of that (2.8 GW) in CSP, and two-thirds of it privately developed.
Egypt's desire for renewables is clear, to help offset fuel shortages
for conventional power plants. But those wind and solar goals, Paton
cautions, are "very ambitious" given the prevailing political
instability, "and it remains to be seen how these will evolve with time
considering the numerous change of governments." And like Libya, a
number of multi-hundred-megawatt wind and solar projects in the planning
stages will depend greatly on investors' appetite for risk.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/03/renewables-in-north-africa-a-nation-by-nation-report-card
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