All things considered, natural gas exports may not be a useful weapon
in the United States’ quest to punish Russia after its annexation of
Crimea. In fact, it may not even amount to a slap on the wrist.
With the approval this week of the export facility, Jordan Cove in
Coos Bay, Ore., the thinking is that liquefied natural gas, or LNG, can
be shipped around the world and compete head on with Russian natural gas
that travels through international pipelines and into Europe.
But that’s not likely to be the case: It will take billions of dollars
to retrofit the U.S. infrastructure and to transport the resulting fuel,
meaning the Europeans won’t get much of a deal.
In due time, a global natural gas foundation may be laid here — but
the whole geo-political chessboard will have been reshuffled. The
argument that the United States must show its strength and move forward
is therefore a bit spurious, although the points about opening borders
and allowing free trade remain formidable.
Conversion of an LNG import facility to one that can export the fuel
is a multi-billion enterprise. The natural gas must first be processed
and super-cooled before it would be sent on tankers to its ultimate
destination, where a receiving facility on the opposite end re-gasifies
the shipment.
As for Europe, it now gets about a quarter of its natural gas from
Russia and it pays about $11 per million Btus. In this country, we’ve
been paying $4 for the same unit, although this winter the price did
spike in certain areas of the country. Asia pays about $18 per million
Btus. Cheap U.S. gas seems like a solution — but not much of one after
after all the costs are tacked on to its product.
Interestingly, 10 years ago no one thought this country would be an
exporter of natural gas. But the newfound discoveries of shale gas
through fracking technologies has changed all that. Now, the U.S.Energy Information Administration is projecting that the unconventional fuel will make up about 50 percent of all natural gas discoveries here by 2040.
Even before the whole Russia-Ukraine flare up, producers such as
ExxonMobil have said that they should be able to ship their product to
where they get the best prices. And they have friends in high places —
the ones who control the committee process in the U.S. Congress and who
want a faster permitting process.
But U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz says that the approach will
continue to be methodical and that regulators will not cut any corners,
although he has said that the Obama administration will consider the
global political and economic context.
In 2012, Cheniere Energy LNG +1.37%,
which owns the Sabine Pass that sits on the Texas and Louisiana border,
became the first operator to get government permission to export LNG.
Its unit is now under construction and it is expected to start shipping
LNG by 2016. Among the others to have to also gotten approval: Freeport
McMoRan Energy, Sempra U.S. Gas and Power and Dominion Resources D +0.2%.
Altogether, about 93 billion cubic feet of this country’s natural gas
wealth could be shipped overseas. In a national economy that values the
free flow of goods and services, should this not be acceptable?
The arguments against doing so are coming from environmentalists who
are concerned about the added development and the increased air
emissions as well as from heavy industry. Those companies have relied on
cheap energy to fuel their expansions. Chemical makers, led by Dow
Chemical, are arguing that if they are less competitive in today’s
brutal international market, then jobs will be lost.
Projecting future exports and fuel prices is not a science but it
stands to reason that if those sales are modest, price pressures would
be minimal. Similarly, if that demand is great, then producers would
work harder to keep up, thus curbing fuel costs. Research done by
Stanford University says that the price increases as a result of U.S.
exports could be as much as $1 per million Btus, although it would
likely be in the area of 40 cents per million Btus.
“If the size of that additional export demand is modest relative to
the scale of domestic supply—as most experts believe—then the impact on
domestic energy prices will also be modest,” adds Richard Newell, who is
the director of Duke University’s Energy Initiative and
the former administrator of the Energy Information Administration, in
an interview. “If U.S. gas prices were to increase substantially, U.S.
LNG would become less competitive, decreasing its demand, and bringing
prices back down.”
Fearing free trade is not the answer, insists Newell. The United
States cannot chastise China for limiting exports for rare earth
minerals, for example, while taking a similar approach with regard to
natural gas exports. In a global marketplace that is committed to open
borders, some players are bound to get hurt but the broader society
should benefit.
Indeed, the United States is not the only country in the business of developing natural gas and potentially marketing it to other countries. Around the world, there are reported to be at least a dozen liquefaction plants under construction that would serve to increase supplies and to moderate prices. In all cases, regulatory approvals are required along with sizable investments and firm contracts that bind customers.
Indeed, the United States is not the only country in the business of developing natural gas and potentially marketing it to other countries. Around the world, there are reported to be at least a dozen liquefaction plants under construction that would serve to increase supplies and to moderate prices. In all cases, regulatory approvals are required along with sizable investments and firm contracts that bind customers.
By the time the U.S. primes its LNG export business, the
international picture will likely have changed. In the interim, other
countries may tap their own shale gas resources while Russia will
probably have re-ingratiated itself with the world community. American
natural gas may be a prized domestic asset — but it’s not a silver
bullet in the global effort to neuter Russia.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2014/03/27/u-s-natural-gas-is-not-a-weapon-to-be-wielded-against-russia/?ss=business:energy
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