An object lesson is a concrete example of a negative outcome often
juxtaposed with a positive outcome, but it is a lesson that is almost
always worth paying attention to. When governments tinker with markets, the end
result depends on more than the specific market — it depends on the
level of support provided to competitors and other actors important to
the industry, the economic climate and the approval or disapproval of
potential customers.
When support is added, the level of its generosity
can accelerate the market to an unsupportable level and invite actors
whose self-interest is counter that of the market. When support is
removed, be it abruptly or slowly, it can accelerate the market
abruptly, leading eventually to a crash. When retroactive measures are
put in place, stability is almost never restored and participants are
punished. When punitive measures are imposed, such as price setting and
taxes, it can destroy the market’s fragile ecosystem.
The most telling comment that can be made about
the market in Europe in 2013 is to recall the region’s historical demand
shares: In 2004, Europe had a 45 percent share of global demand. By
2006 Europe’s share of global demand had increased to 55 percent. In
2007, Europe’s share of demand was 71 percent, in 2009 83 percent, and
in 2013 Europe’s expected share of the global market for photovoltaic
installations is 23 percent.
Figure 1 presents estimated regional demand shares
for 2013. Though the global PV industry is healthier with a
diversified portfolio of markets, none of these markets are as easy to
traverse as the early European Feed in Tariff markets, nor are these new
markets necessarily profitable. Rapid and often retroactive changes to
feed in tariff programs in Europe have left installers, distributors
and other PV industry participants in Europe unprepared and struggling.
The current price setting agreement between the EU and China has not
righted the situation for Europe’s cell and module manufacturers, and it
has strained the resources of demand side participants.
Figure 1 Estimated Regional Demand Shares 2013
Figure 2 depicts European demand profile from 2002
through the 2013 estimate. From 2002 through 2012 demand, that is the
market for solar installations, in Europe grew by a compound annual 56
percent.
Figure 2 Europe Demand Growth and Accelerated Estimate 2002 - 2015
During the 2004 through 2011 time frame,
accelerated growth into this region was driven by the feed-in tariff
incentive. Originally, this incentive, which was pioneered by Germany,
was a transparent mechanism with efficient rules regarding
interconnection and easy permitting. The German FIT was an orderly
market instrument. Unfortunately, as the incentive spread among other
European countries, transparency and efficiency gave way to overly
generous tariffs that encouraged speculation and led to over-stimulated
markets, broken rules, poorly installed systems and the development and
deployment of less than robust technology. To be blunt, the generous FIT
landscape did not bring out the best in new entrants, nor did it often
stimulate the best behavior in long-time participants.
In the period before the global recession, banks
and other investors did not require performance guarantees with the
result, again, of poorly designed systems and poorly assembled module
product. Countries in Europe with FITs underwent abrupt changes to the
rules and the tariff rates. These abrupt changes shook investor
confidence and drove down IRRs, specifically, with retroactive changes
returns that were assumed to be stable abruptly became unstable. For
example, a retroactive tax established in the Czech Republic led to a
market crash with no expectations for recovery, while changes to the
amount of electricity that would be reimbursed in Spain (as well as
other countries) along with the abrupt cessation of that country’s
incentive in 2011 has shown clearly that the feed in tariff is an
unreliable instrument — as are all artificial market supports.
The global PV (solar in general) industry competes
against heavily subsidized conventional energy that is delivered in
some regions at the cost (or below the cost) of production. The
supports that conventional energy enjoys are deep, historic and
multi-faceted it. The supports that solar has received were temporary.
These supports when applied to an industry with so many constraints and
a well-supported competitor did nothing to encourage the industry to
prepare for the time when a low-incentive environment would return — nor
did punitive measures, particularly those applied after the fact, heal
the wounds of government interference.
The fact is that the global health of the climate
and the health of current and future generations require a switch to
renewables and away from polluting sources of energy. At the very least a
level playing field (removing supports for conventional energy,
including fracking) would let the participants battle it out somewhere
in the vicinity of fairly.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/09/object-lesson-europes-solar-energy-market
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